A popular “domino effect” meme circulates online every few months, linking slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s decision to launch the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks — the smallest domino — to a series of major geopolitical shifts across the Middle East. While both simplified and exaggerated, the meme underscores the dramatic reshaping of Middle Eastern power dynamics.

The next domino may be the decades-long fraught relationship between Israel and Lebanon, as Iran’s ironclad grip over the region loosens and its most powerful proxy, Hezbollah, finds itself increasingly weakened and marginalized in Lebanon, where it has for decades played a key role in the country’s politics and military. 

Those current geopolitical conditions — Iran at its weakest point in decades, successive levels of Hezbollah leadership removed from power through Israeli military actions, the degradation of Hamas and a new government in Syria that has separated itself from Tehran — laid the groundwork for yesterday’s State Department summit, convened by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, between Israel and Lebanon.

The State Department meeting between the ambassadors from Lebanon and Israel took place as the U.S. navigates stalled talks and a tenuous ceasefire with Iran — which was initially on unstable ground as Iran demanded that Israel cease its targeting of Hezbollah as part of the ceasefire. 

A senior Israeli official told Jewish Insider on Wednesday that Iran’s effort to link the two conflicts was “a strategic trap with long-term ramifications.”

“There was real pressure to link the Lebanon front to the Iran ceasefire,” the official said. If President Donald Trump had acquiesced to the Iranian demand to link the two conflicts, the official continued, “We would not be on the path to peace that we’re on now. Keeping the arenas separate ultimately means that the fate of Lebanon is no longer dictated by Iran.”

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett — now mounting a comeback bid ahead of elections later this year — has often used the “Octopus Doctrine” to describe a security approach to tackling Iran’s decades-long control over the region. Cut off the head of the octopus — Tehran — and the tentacles will be easier to tackle, the logic goes. 

Israel, having severed the metaphorical octopus’ head on the opening day of the recent war with Iran, is now continuing its work to degrade and dismantle Iranian proxies — a process that began two and a half years ago, triggered by the Oct. 7 attacks.

“One of the most significant developments in the Middle East since Oct. 7 has been the steady dismantling of that axis — separating arenas that sought to bind their fates together,” the senior Israeli official said. 

The talks are not without risk. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called off a planned trip to the U.S. over the weekend out of concerns of potential domestic unrest — amid the still very real risk that Hezbollah, albeit weakened, could attempt a power grab in his absence. Recall that in 2005, former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri was killed in a car bombing, with a Hezbollah operative convicted by a U.N. tribunal in absentia for the assassination.

The talks were hailed by Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter, who said that the parties “discovered today that we’re on the same side of the equation” and “are both united in liberating Lebanon from an occupation power dominated by Iran called Hezbollah.”

Rubio delivered a measured assessment of the goals of yesterday’s talks: “This is about bringing a permanent end to 20 or 30 years of Hezbollah’s influence in this part of the world,” he said at a roundtable ahead of the meeting. “This will take time, but we believe it is worth this endeavor.”

Beirut has in recent years — and with varying degrees of seriousness and success — worked to disentangle itself from Iran and Hezbollah. Now, the U.S.-Israeli military pressure on Iran, combined with the Trump administration’s zest for dealmaking and the degradation of Hezbollah, could create the right environment to bring peace to the Mediterranean Riviera.

As the Al Jazeera Forum, which features Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal among other speakers defaming Israel on the gathering’s main stage, takes place in Doha, Qatari minister Nasser Al-Khelaifi was being feted by Fanatics CEO Michael Rubin at another high-profile convening — Super Bowl weekend, taking place in Santa Clara, Calif. 

Al-Khelaifi is the chairman of Qatar Sports Investments (QSI), one of the Qatari sovereign wealth funds that invests heavily in international sports and entertainment. Among his other titles, Al-Khelaifi is also a board member of the Qatar Investment Authority, a minister of state and the president of the Paris Saint-Germain Football Club in France and the Qatar Tennis Foundation. 

Rubin posted a picture with Al-Khelaifi from his annual Super Bowl luncheon on Instagram with the caption, “Incredible lunch with amazing people across sports, business, and culture.” 

Rubin and Al-Khelaifi have developed a friendship in recent years, including a long-term partnership between Fanatics and Paris Saint-Germain. Rubin posted a photo with Al-Khelaifi at the F1 Qatar Grand Prix last November, where he called the Qatari minister his “brother” and said, “What you did for both the city of Paris and country of Qatar is truly amazing.” The two spent time together at the World Cup finals in July at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, where Al-Khelaifi’s team, Paris Saint-Germain, was playing Chelsea.

Al-Khelaifi also spoke at Fanatics Fest NYC last June, an event that kicked off a five-year strategic partnership between the Fanatics and Qatar’s Government Communications Office. Rubin appeared in Doha in December at the inaugural Wall Street Journal Tech Live Qatar summit. The Qatar Investment Authority, of which Al-Khelaifi is a board member, also holds a minority stake in Fanatics. 

While the Super Bowl festivities were underway, the 17th annual Al Jazeera Forum was taking place back in Doha, where Mashaal applauded the group’s Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel as having “brought the Palestinian cause back to the forefront of the world.” Mashaal, who resides in Doha, also hailed Qatar’s “honorable role in the [Palestinian] cause.” 

Other speakers at the forum included Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and U.N. Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese, all of whom used their speaking time to denounce Israel. Albanese, who addressed the gathering virtually, claimed all of humanity “now has a common enemy” in Israel, while Mohamud accused Israel of “preparing or positioning itself” for an attack in the region. Al Jazeera is backed by the Qatari government and ruling Al Thani family. 

Pictured alongside Rubin and Al-Khelaifi was Ari Emanuel, CEO of TKO Group Holdings, which owns the UFC and WWE. The Qatar Investment Authority is a key investor in Emanuel’s new entertainment holding company, MARI, which raised over $2 billion last October.

Among other A-listers at Rubin’s annual lunch were NFL great Tom Brady, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, Netflix Chief Content Officer Bela Bajaria, quarterback Joe Burrow, former tennis player Roger Federer, actress Emma Roberts and rappers Jay Z, Meek Mill and Travis Scott.