Like with the gradual impact of climate change, the Democratic Party’s shift away from its pro-Israel moorings and its commitments to fight antisemitism is happening in a slow but appreciable fashion. Seemingly every week, there’s a political development, polling nugget or election outcome that underscores the party’s commitment to Jewish voters isn’t quite where it was in the not-too-distant past.

There were the Pew Research Center and Quinnipiac polls this spring showing that most Democratic voters now view Israel unfavorably — with support for the Jewish state dividing more clearly along partisan lines. The results underscored why so few Democrats could muster even some reluctant praise for the U.S. strikes setting back Iran’s nuclear program. 

There’s the blowback that Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro received from the Kamala Harris campaign for comparing extremist anti-Israel protesters on campuses to Ku Klux Klan members, as recounted in a new tell-all book about the 2024 campaign. Or the similar intraparty animus that another leading Democratic Jewish official, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, received after her office charged anti-Israel student protesters for assaulting police and engaging in ethnic intimidation. 

Amid sustained political pressure from the left, these two leading Jewish Democrats have since pulled their political punches. Shapiro, a national political figure who was one of the most prominent targets of antisemitic hate, notably chose to avoid labeling the attack on the governor’s mansion as antisemitic in a nationally televised interview. Nessel later dropped the charges, amid a smear campaign that her decision to charge the students was a result of anti-Muslim bias.

And of course, there was the shocking outcome last month in the New York City Democratic primary where Zohran Mamdani, the far-left candidate who declined to speak out against “globalize the intifada” rhetoric, comfortably prevailed over former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo for his party’s nomination. That result followed pro-Israel stalwart Rep. Josh Gottheimer’s (D-NJ) fourth-place finish in New Jersey’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, despite ample resources and a message geared towards Jewish moderates.

Next week in an Arizona special election, the pro-Israel candidate, former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez Jr. — best-known for helping save former Rep. Gabby Giffords’ life — is lagging behind Adelita Grijalva, the daughter of the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), who has been more critical of the Jewish state. 

The latest data points that should concern mainstream Democrats are from the new fundraising figures in the Michigan Senate race. The primary has become something of an ideological proxy battle, pitting Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), a strong ally of Israel with a battle-tested political track record, against an anti-Israel left-wing challenger, Abdul El-Sayed, who has not had much success in statewide politics. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, with a progressive record in the Michigan Legislature, has been trying to balance both sides of the ideological divide. (Former Michigan House Speaker Joe Tate is also running.)

Stevens, long one of the party’s top fundraisers, lagged behind both her rivals in the just-completed fundraising quarter. Her $1.3 million raised, supplemented by a transfer of the $1.2 million already in her House campaign account, was a solid sum. But it was surpassed by McMorrow ($2.1 million) and also by El-Sayed ($1.8 million), whose surprising financial haul is a likely reflection of the ideological disposition of the party’s small donor base.

It’s a warning sign that anti-Israel activism is now being leveraged as a way to raise money for like-minded candidates. That would be a shift from recent elections where many candidates hostile to Israel were seen as too extreme to win support from a critical mass of donors.

The big picture? Turbocharged partisanship and polarization, which has impacted nearly every issue in the country, is now affecting the politics behind support for Israel — and even turning bipartisan issues with widespread support, like fighting against antisemitism and defending Jewish communal interests, into a partisan food fight. 

For decades, most Jewish voters have aligned themselves with the Democratic Party, even amid serious policy disagreements. It’s hard to imagine that changing dramatically, even as we’ve seen small shifts towards the GOP, especially among more-observant Jewish voters. But if the party continues to accommodate far-left forces with radical views on Israel and antisemitism, that level of support will be significantly tested — and worth watching closely — in the years ahead.