Michigan will take center stage this week as it holds its marquee Senate primary and consequential downballot races that showcase the divide between the Democratic mainstream and its left-wing, anti-Israel activists.

But Missouri is playing the role of the must-watch undercard, with the rematch between Rep. Wesley Bell (D-MO) and Democratic Socialists of America-aligned former Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) marking another significant bellwether contest between the center and the left.

Bell, a stalwart supporter of Israel who was championed by AIPAC in both of his congressional campaigns, is facing a changed political environment within the Democratic Party with public opinion turning against the Jewish state. 

Bell defeated Bush by five points in 2024, but the race could end up being closer this time around given the ascendance of socialist candidates in urban, deep-blue districts like Missouri’s First District. 

Bush, however, has myriad other vulnerabilities beyond her far-left policy views, from missed votes during her time in Congress to ethical questions surrounding her handling of campaign funds. 

Bell is also being boosted by outside groups,  led by the AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project super PAC, which has spent over $2.6 million in the race hitting Bush, along with the New Democrat Coalition-affiliated super PAC, which has poured in just over $1 million on Bell’s behalf. Bell has also outspent Bush on the airwaves by about a ten-to-one margin, according to the Cook Political Report.

Jewish groups, both locally and nationally, are also organizing get-out-the-vote efforts on Bell’s behalf. The Jewish Democratic Council of America has been rallying its national membership for an in-person canvassing campaign, and Agudath Israel’s Missouri office mobilized its volunteers to help boost nonpartisan Jewish turnout.

The Cook Political Report gives Bell the advantage in the race, noting that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (despite endorsing Bush) hasn’t campaigned on her behalf and underscoring the spending disparity which appears to be stunting Bush’s ability to grow support in the St. Louis-area district. 

But given the overall momentum in Democratic primaries for anti-Israel candidates, the race is still expected to be worth tracking closely.