The joint U.S.-Israeli military operation targeting Iran is already changing the dynamics of Democratic congressional primaries in which Middle East policy and the role of pro-Israel spending have featured prominently — as some progressive candidates seek to capitalize on the conflict to bolster their anti-Israel messaging.

In hotly contested House races in North Carolina and Illinois, for instance, the widening war is now emerging as a closing topic of conversation, providing some early signs of how it could reshape the leading issues in the run-up to this year’s midterm elections. 

Nida Allam, a far-left Democrat and antagonist of Israel, who is challenging Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-NC), released a closing message focused on her opposition to the Iran war, linking her rival to defense contractors and pro-Israel backers.

In a direct-to-camera message, Allam denounced the strikes for “killing over 100 elementary school children,” a claim yet to be confirmed by the United States or Israel, and accused Foushee’s campaign of accepting contributions from defense contractors and a super PAC linked to the artificial intelligence firm Anthropic, whose technology was reportedly used to aid the attacks.

“I have opposed these ‘forever wars’ my entire career,” Allam said in the ad. “If you believe we need to do things differently, and you, like me, are praying for peace and demanding accountability, please consider voting for me.”

Foushee, who was elected to Congress in 2022 with support from the pro-Israel advocacy group AIPAC — backing she has since walked away from — disputed Allam’s criticism, and echoed other congressional colleagues in casting the strikes as an “illegal” overreach by President Donald Trump.

“I do not support Trump’s illegal war with Iran and will do everything I can in Congress to support War Powers Resolutions to stop it,” she said in an X post Saturday. “The American people are tired of endless wars and we cannot put our servicemembers at risk — period.”

But political observers said the Iran war could give a final jolt of momentum to Allam, who is seeking the nomination in a left-leaning district where her rhetoric might appeal to activist-minded voters who are increasingly wary of new foreign entanglements in the Middle East and beyond.

“Given the leftward lean of the 4th Congressional District and Allam’s positioning to the left of Foushee — particularly on Middle East policy — it could very well make a difference,” Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University, told Jewish Insider on Monday. “Thousands of votes have already been cast, but for late deciders, this is exactly the kind of issue that could help tilt a voter to one side or the other. It’s hard to get more salient than war.”

Meanwhile, in a crowded open-seat primary for a progressive House seat in the Chicago suburbs, one candidate, Kat Abughazaleh, is likewise indicating that she intends to highlight her opposition to the ongoing Iran strikes as the March 17 race enters its final stretch, saying she “will be talking about it very vocally and often because this is very much a topic on people’s minds.”

One of Abughazaleh’s top primary opponents in Illinois’ 9th Congressional District, Laura Fine, a pro-Israel Democrat who voiced support for Israel’s June 2025 bombing of Iran, also came out strongly against the new strikes, but framed her criticism as a response to Trump’s executive overreach and called for his impeachment.

“Donald Trump is leading us into another military conflict to distract from his own failures that puts American lives at risk and threatens to send the Middle East into further chaos,” Fine, a moderate state senator supported by pro-Israel voters, wrote on social media over the weekend. “He simply cannot be trusted and must be impeached. Congress needs to do its job and rein in Trump’s corruption and abuses of power.”

Frank Calabrese, a political strategist in Chicago, questioned the sincerity of Fine’s new rhetoric on Iran. “The reason why she’s doing that is because that’s what the polls are saying,” he told JI Monday. 

The conflict “raises Middle East issues much more so than previously” in the race, he said, speculating that it would likely benefit Abughazaleh’s campaign “because she’s staked out a position that makes her different” than Daniel Biss, the mayor of Evanston and another leading primary rival who is sharply critical of Israel. 

The Iran war “generally benefits progressives or liberals,” Calabrese said, “because people on the left end of the spectrum don’t like Donald Trump acting aggressively.”

For pro-Israel Democrats who have long criticized Iran, the war poses some unique complications, as the party tries to take advantage of widespread discomfort with Trump’s unilateral decision to pursue the strike without first having sought authorization from Congress. Other top pro-Israel candidates in congressional races in New York and Michigan, where Middle East policy has been a prominent source of debate, have made sure to distance themselves from the conflict, even if they are likely relieved the ayatollah is no longer in power.

For example, Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY), facing a primary challenge from a progressive Israel critic, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, wrote in a statement that Trump “is defying our Constitution to spend billions of dollars overseas while working families struggle to make ends meet at home.”

While he called Iran “a treacherous regime that represents a direct threat to the democratic world order and our own national security,” he said that “recent history has taught us that toppling Middle East dictators in the name of regime change is the beginning — not the end — of a process that too often results in expensive and deadly forever wars.”

Lander, for his part, was more forceful in his own comments, calling the strikes “an illegal war being waged by a sociopathic president whose goal is to distract people from his failing administration.”

Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), the pro-Israel moderate in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, said that Trump had “once again put Americans in harm’s way without consulting Congress — the latest in a series of grave violations of our Constitution by this administration.”

She acknowledged, however, that “Iran’s state sponsorship of terror across the globe has led to chaos and unchecked violence.”

“We cannot ignore that an armed and nuclear Iran would bring even more violence and chaos to the Middle East and the entire world,” Stevens said in her statement. “We also cannot ignore the imperative to achieve freedom for the people of Iran, who have bravely spoken out through protest in recent weeks.”

Political strategists who spoke with JI said that the war, which early polling has shown is unpopular with voters, could help to broadly elevate progressives in key races — if the conflict remains a salient topic of conversation in the coming weeks and months.

Adrian Hemond, a political consultant in Michigan, said much depends on whether the war ends quickly or grows into a “protracted military effort” involving more American casualties. As of Monday afternoon, the U.S. had lost six servicemembers.

“That’s a horse of a different color,” he told JI. “If we’re still talking about this months from now, then it will have a huge impact on the primary and will probably benefit” Abdul El-Sayed, a far-left Senate candidate in Michigan campaigning on a stridently anti-Israel platform.

In a statement on the strikes, El-Sayed called Trump “a failed president” who is now “committing us to spending billions of our taxpayer dollars in yet another war with no aim.”

Chris Coffey, a Democratic strategist in New York City, cautioned it was too early to predict how the war could shape the primaries or general election. 

Still, he suggested that the conflict, which has also faced blowback from influential right-wing figures, “could have negative consequences” for Republicans in the midterms, particularly if it “drags on” and more American servicemembers are killed or oil prices continue to spike before November.

“It’s too soon to tell,” Coffey told JI on Monday. “If you open up a Pandora’s box, you don’t know what’s going to come out of it.”