The Lebanese Armed Forces announced Thursday that it had taken operational control of the south of the country and successfully completed the first phase of its operation to disarm Hezbollah — a claim that experts say is unlikely to satisfy Israel and could risk further escalation. 

Under the November 2024 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese government was tasked with removing the terror group south of the Litani River, near Israel’s border, with a deadline of Dec. 31, 2025, before moving to the second phase of disarmament north of the Litani. 

Experts told Jewish Insider that the Lebanese army’s claim has done little to quell Israeli concerns. In response to the announcement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the efforts by Lebanon’s government and army thus far were “far from sufficient.” 

“Despite the statements published today in Lebanon, the facts remain that extensive Hezbollah military infrastructure still exists south of the Litani River,” Israel’s foreign ministry stated in a post on X on Thursday. “The goal of disarming Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remains far from being achieved.” 

The foreign ministry also cited concerns over “cooperation between elements within the LAF and Hezbollah,” calling such coordination “regrettable.” 

Former IDF intelligence chief Tamir Hayman, head of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, called Lebanon’s announcement “an illusion … far from the truth.”

“On the ground, south of the Litani River, remain thousands of Hezbollah sites that were not cleaned of arms,” Hayman wrote in an analysis for Israel’s Channel 12. 

The ceasefire agreement followed more than a year of war that erupted after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel, which displaced more than 60,000 residents from northern Israel.

While Israel significantly degraded Hezbollah during the 2024 fighting — taking out the group’s leadership and destroying much of its arsenal — concerns have remained over the group’s continued presence near the Israeli border and rearmament during the ceasefire.

“My view is that the ceasefire itself, at the time it went into effect, was a mistake, because you had Hezbollah on the ropes,” said David Daoud, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “There was no indication that the Lebanese were going to start moving against Hezbollah if a ceasefire was going to go into effect.”

Daoud added that the ceasefire gave Hezbollah “breathing room.” Israel has remained skeptical of Lebanon’s ability to fully disarm the terrorist group, even with Hezbollah’s weak stature. 

Hayman warned that “Hezbollah is not extinct. It is in an accelerated recovery process,” backed by Iranian funding, which includes training officers, opening small workshops that manufacture drones and procuring Syrian Army weapons on the black market. 

Since the establishment of the ceasefire, Israel has continued to strike inside Lebanon, citing Hezbollah’s violations and efforts to rebuild its military capabilities. 

Most recently, the IDF struck “Hezbollah infrastructure” in southern Lebanon on Sunday, citing “continuous violations of ceasefire understandings.”

“A short while ago, the IDF struck shafts used for storing weapons in several military sites belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon,” the IDF said in a statement. “Hezbollah’s terror activity at these sites constitutes a violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon. The IDF will continue to operate to remove any threat posed to the State of Israel.”

The announcement about disarmament is “a stunt meant to get what they want out of the Israelis, meaning an end to the attacks [on Hezbollah military infrastructure],” said Daoud. “The Lebanese talk about it and nothing ever gets done.” 

Daoud added that Lebanon has “not done anything to counter Hezbollah,” even in “minimal areas.”

Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the situation has become increasingly tense because there is “no indication” that Lebanon will move forward with the next phases of disarmament and that it is “more likely” the country is “not going to move north of Litani” in order to avoid confrontation with Hezbollah.

Analysts said this inaction could prompt Israel to resume broader military strikes against Hezbollah targets, potentially reigniting tensions along the border. 

“The reaction would be another escalation, and that’s what everybody is expecting, including the Lebanese government, president, army, etc.,” said Ghaddar. “It seems to me they know this is going to be the reaction of the Israelis. They know that there will be escalation if they don’t do more [to confront Hezbollah].”

Daoud agreed that further rounds of hostilities are “possible,” adding that the Israelis “have been talking about amping up escalation.” However, he noted that he does not expect a return to war. 

“My sense is we’ll see punctuations of escalation, maybe some weeks where there’s more intense bombing, more wide-scale bombing, maybe some more operations, more targeted killings, but that remains short of war … [and] short of provoking Hezbollah into a massive response,” said Daoud.

“If it continues to remain true that Lebanon is not going to act against Hezbollah in a meaningful way, then the necessary evil, if you will, of military escalation by Israel is the only option to prevent Hezbollah from regenerating,” said Daoud.

Hayman said that Israel will need to take action, but should weigh the right timing to ensure it doesn’t draw attention away from the mass protests currently taking place in Iran. 

In addition, he wrote, Israel must find a way to ensure the next operation against Hezbollah brings long-term safety to northern Israel.  

Reports have indicated that Washington has also been unsatisfied with the Lebanese government’s efforts to confront Hezbollah. Israeli media reported that Netanyahu told members of his Cabinet that President Donald Trump gave him the “green light” for further operations in Lebanon to counter the group. 

However, Daoud said the Trump administration would likely prefer to avoid the resumption of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, noting that Trump’s “green light” likely refers to strategic operations rather than all out conflict.

“I don’t think President Trump wants to see another war,” said Daoud. “The administration wants to free up attention and resources to deal with bigger problems [such as Gaza or Iran], rather than what is perceived as a small fish like Lebanon, despite the fact that I would say Hezbollah is a significant threat to the United States.” 

The terrorist group has thus far refrained from responding to Israeli strikes in what Daoud described as an effort to rebuild, prepare for the “long run” and not provoke Jerusalem or the U.S.

“[Hezbollah is] far from done. What they want is to stanch the bleeding as much as possible,” said Daoud. “That’s why they’ve been taking all these assassinations very quietly. Their calculus is: ‘Do we lose five guys a week maximum, or do we trigger the Israelis with the Trump administration in office to the point where we lose 100 guys a week?’”

JI’s senior political correspondent Lahav Harkov contributed to this report.