Just when it looked like far-left New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani was on track to become mayor, in part thanks to persistent divisions among his opposition, there are signs of a possible consolidation of the crowded field.

The New York Times reported that embattled Mayor Eric Adams is considering a job offer from the Trump administration — a position at the Department of Housing and Urban Development or an ambassadorship have been floated — that would entice him to withdraw from the race. The paper is also reporting that Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa has also been approached by Trump allies, but Sliwa has remained adamant that he is sticking in the race. 

All told, Trump’s team is doing everything it can behind the scenes to eliminate the structural hurdles for a successful anti-Mamdani coalition, without publicly putting its finger on the scale for the leading Mamdani challenger, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. (It’s also notable that Trump, even though it would be in his political interest to use a Mamdani mayoralty as a battering ram against Democrats, is more concerned about the policy consequences of a socialist mayor in his hometown.)

A one-on-one Mamdani-Cuomo general election showdown is still far from a sure thing, but it’s worth noting that the matchup would be quite competitive, according to the available public polling. Even the pro-Mamdani pollster Adam Carlson found in July that Mamdani only led Cuomo by three points among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, though the lead expanded to double digits when the most likely voters were polled.

An August poll conducted by Gotham Polling and Analytics for the AARP found Mamdani leading Cuomo 44-25% with all the candidates running, but also found that only 4% of respondents chose Mamdani as their second choice. (Adams was the second choice of 17% of respondents, while Cuomo was the second choice of 14%.)

The data suggest Mamdani would remain the front-runner, but the race would get a lot more competitive if the field narrowed. It would also put renewed pressure on business groups, Jewish organizations and moderate Democratic politicians who have refused to endorse Mamdani to decide whether to go all in for Cuomo — or maintain the same cautious posture that has defined the post-primary portion of the campaign.

For New York’s Democratic leaders who haven’t backed Mamdani, the partisan instinct to support the nominee of one’s party will probably prevent party leaders from siding with Cuomo. Indeed, for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), their hesitance to support Mamdani is driven by a realization that his brand of left-wing politics could taint the party’s candidates down the ballot — and it’s simply smart politics to keep their distance. It’s hard to see them going as far as backing Cuomo, even in a close race.

For New York Democrats in moderate districts, the calculation could get a lot more interesting. Swing-district moderates such as Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen have been among the most outspoken critics against Mamdani, but aren’t endorsing an alternative. But if Cuomo looked like he was within striking distance of winning, there would be a lot of pressure for them to step off the sidelines.

The biggest test will be whether outside groups truly mount an all-out offensive against Mamdani if the race gets close. So far, many business leaders and other skeptical stakeholders have preferred to see if they can negotiate with the mayoral front-runner, in hopes of persuading him to moderate his past positions. 

That looked like a smart play with the opposition hopelessly divided, and Mamdani on cruise control. But if Trump, of all people, manages to do the hard, dirty work of opening up an opportunity for Cuomo, will the Mamdani opposition take advantage of the new political dynamic?