As the closely watched Democratic primary for mayor of New York City wraps up today, many Jewish and pro-Israel activists are now confronting a mounting sense of alarm that Zohran Mamdani, a far-left assemblyman from Queens, could win the nomination, propelling a fierce critic of Israel to the general election — and, potentially, Gracie Mansion.

In a city home to the largest Jewish community outside of Israel, Mamdani’s rise has fueled anxiety among Jewish leaders — particularly as his hostile positions toward Israel have hardly dented his standing in a competitive race that has narrowed to a two-person matchup.

Even if Mamdani does not win, Jewish Democrats uncomfortable with his strident criticism of Israel and alleged insensitivity to rising antisemitism fear that his surging campaign could end up alienating Jewish voters who have long called the party home.

“The Jewish community is going to face a real shock if Mamdani gets the nomination,” Mitchell Moss, an urban policy professor at New York University who is backing Cuomo, said in an interview with Jewish Insider on Monday. “A lot of people have come to realize that anti-Israel sentiment has metastasized into antisemitism.”

The Tik Tok-savvy Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, has largely polled in second place behind his chief rival, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, though a poll released by Emerson College on Monday showed Mamdani narrowly prevailing. 

Cuomo’s campaign, for its part, has dismissed the survey as an outlier and cited other polls showing him with a more robust lead in the crowded race to unseat Mayor Eric Adams, who is seeking reelection as an independent. Fix the City, a pro-Cuomo super PAC that has slammed Mamdani’s approach to Israel in several attack ads, also released a new poll Monday that found Cuomo with a comfortable, 24-point lead over Mamdani in the final round of voting. 

While support for Israel had once been viewed as a prerequisite for any winning campaign in New York City, Mamdani’s bid has tested that proposition. He has suggested he is uninterested in visiting Israel if elected, breaking with long-standing precedent, and has declined to acknowledge Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. 

The two-term state lawmaker, who has endorsed boycotts targeting Israel, has said he would divest from Israel as mayor and promised to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for alleged war crimes if he were to enter the city. Perhaps most controversially, Mamdani has drawn scrutiny for defending calls to “globalize the intifada” — a slogan that critics interpret as stoking violence against Jews.

Despite backlash, Mamdani doubled down on that defense during a radio interview on Monday, saying the phrase “has a variety of meanings to a variety of people.”

Many Jewish and pro-Israel activists in New York City have found his response alarming. “No matter what the outcome tomorrow, the fact that Zohran has been able to capture the attention of so many people who are really blind to his antisemitic tendencies really says something about the state of our electorate right now,” Sara Forman, who leads a pro-Israel super PAC that has urged voters to rank Cuomo first and to exclude Mamdani entirely, told JI.

Mamdani’s “foreign policy stances are isolating Jews and freezing us out from our political home base in the Democratic Party,” Forman said in an interview on Monday. “If the Democratic Party doesn’t wake up and start speaking to its core constituencies of Blacks, Jews and Latinos, we’re going to find our party rebuilt in someone else’s image.”

Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic strategist, predicted a Mamdani victory could end up pushing “more Jews nationally into the Republican column” and said Orthodox Jews might choose to relocate to South Florida and New Jersey. “Whether he wins or loses,” Sheinkopf said, the contours of the race have sent a concerning message that he characterized as “Jews don’t matter.”

Mamdani has rejected accusations of antisemitism, saying his opponents have weaponized such charges to score “political points.” He has said he is sensitive to rising antisemitism across New York City and has vowed to increase funding to counter hate crimes by 800%.

Early voting tallies have suggested that Mamdani has galvanized his base of younger supporters who are enlivened by his calls to “freeze the rent” and to deliver free buses as he has emphasized a message of affordability.

Cuomo, meanwhile, is depending on strong turnout from Black, Latino and Orthodox Jewish voters who have long been part of his core coalition. The former governor has locked up major endorsements from a range of key Orthodox leaders in Williamsburg and Borough Park, a Hasidic enclave in Brooklyn where he spent time on Sunday rallying a community that could deliver thousands of votes in a close election.

One Satmar leader in Williamsburg told JI that he is expecting solid turnout from New York City’s largest Hasidic voting bloc, predicting up to 8,000 votes for Cuomo, who has worked to mend relationships with Orthodox leaders that soured over his crackdown on religious gatherings during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Cuomo campaign believes polls are missing the Orthodox vote, which could make the difference in a close election, according to an advisor who said that turnout from the community has been encouraging. “But what else are they missing is the question,” the advisor told JI on Monday, speaking anonymously to address the race.

Still, some Orthodox leaders remain on edge as Mamdani has continued to defy the odds over the course of the campaign. “He has really excited his base,” said one Orthodox leader in Brooklyn. “I am very fearful that he could actually make it, especially on ranked choice.”

Cuomo, who has won endorsements from Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) and former President Bill Clinton in recent days, has also struggled to overcome his own vulnerabilities in the race, including accusations of sexual misconduct that forced his resignation from office in 2021. He denies the allegations and said he regrets stepping down.

In the final days of the election, the former governor — who has called antisemitism “the most important issue” and touted his staunch support for Israel — has insisted that his decades of government experience make him better suited to handle threats from Iran after the U.S. bombing of its nuclear sites over the weekend.

“Who do you want in charge in that situation?” he said of possible Iranian retaliation for the attacks. “Who’s handled situations like Hurricane Sandy and COVID and terrorist threats? This is not a job for on-the-job training.” 

As for the bombing itself, Cuomo backed the effort to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, but he took issue with President Donald Trump’s decision to do so unilaterally without first consulting Congress — underscoring another key difference with Mamdani on Middle East policy.

Mamdani criticized the attack on Iran as “the result of a political establishment that would rather spend trillions of dollars on weapons than lift millions out of poverty, launch endless wars while silencing calls for peace, and fearmonger about outsiders while billionaires hollow out our democracy from within.”

The other candidates in the crowded primary, including Brad Lander, the city comptroller, and Adrienne Adams, the City Council speaker, have struggled to gain traction, polling has indicated.

Regardless of the primary result, which is unlikely to be confirmed for several days because of the ranked-choice system, both Mamdani and Cuomo could run in the general election on separate ballot lines, a possibility neither candidate has ruled out.

“This is a prelude to November,” said Moss, the urban policy professor, envisioning a high-stakes general election. “If Mamdani wins in New York,” he warned, “you can say goodbye to the Democratic Party for a long time.”