As Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) works to come from behind in the closing weeks of the New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial primary, the veteran congressman is counting on support from the state’s sizable Jewish community to launch him to victory in the June 10 election.

“It’s a key part, a critical part of the coalition,” Gottheimer told Jewish Insider on Monday. “These off-year primaries are — despite what we’re all working to do — it’s always a lower turnout in the off years. And I’d say the Jewish community is very engaged, and I think they play a really important role in the election.”

He argued that he has an extensive record both in office and before his time in Congress fighting antisemitism and supporting the U.S.-Israel relationship, and has forged deep bonds with the Jewish community, particularly at a time when it has been subjected to increased antisemitism.

“I think that [the Jewish] community around the state recognizes that,” Gottheimer said. “I think I’ve made a very strong case of why I’d be an excellent governor for the Jewish community, and for all communities.”

Gottheimer recently picked up the endorsement of the Lakewood Vaad, an influential group of rabbis in one of the state’s largest Orthodox Jewish communities, which urged both Democrats and unaffiliated voters to vote for Gottheimer in the Democratic primary. The endorsement came comparatively early for the Vaad, which in the past has endorsed candidates as late as on Election Day.

As of last week, Lakewood had more than 20,000 unaffiliated Orthodox Jewish voters, in addition to nearly 3,000 Orthodox voters registered as Democrats, according to Shlomo Schorr, the director of legislative affairs for Agudath Israel of America’s New Jersey office. In surrounding communities in Ocean County where the Vaad’s sphere of influence extends, there are 3,500 Orthodox Democrats and 2,250 unaffiliated Orthodox voters, Schorr said.

“It’s a three-part punch: it’s Lakewood coming out early, it’s Lakewood saying to the Democrats they should vote for Josh and it’s them saying [to] the unaffiliated who have the ability to show up that day and declare as a Democrat that they should as well show up for Josh,” a Gottheimer-backing New Jersey strategist said. 

Even as Gottheimer has lagged behind other opponents, such as Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), the establishment favorite in the race, in the limited public polling available, one Gottheimer advisor suggested that current polling could be missing the preferences of the Orthodox community. 

“Orthodox communities such as the Vaad are generally missed as a part of traditional polls because the community is not inclined to participate in traditional opinion polling,” the advisor told JI. “If you wanted to look for a hidden vote that wouldn’t be counted, there’d certainly be evidence that that is one.”

The New Jersey strategist predicted that the Lakewood endorsement would produce a “domino” effect: as the largest Jewish community in the state, Lakewood turning out for Gottheimer could drive turnout among other New Jersey Jewish communities, signaling “that Josh has a viable path to victory and to win.” Some other Jewish community leaders, including a Jersey Shore-based Sephardic Orthodox group, have also endorsed Gottheimer.

If those communities turn out in force for Gottheimer, it could total between 30,000 and 50,000 votes, the strategist said, which “is enough to — 100% — win that election.” They continued, “Josh’s path to victory is Bergen County turning out and the Jewish community turning out.”

Gottheimer also emphasized to JI that he’s been speaking to Jewish communities throughout the state for months, and has won endorsements from mayors and other local officials in areas with large Jewish communities statewide, both Orthodox and non-Orthodox.

“We have very big support — I’ve spent a lot of time — because I think the Jewish community wants somebody who’s going to stand up and fight antisemitism and hate, who’s going to make sure we teach children in K-12 about the Holocaust, about what happened on Oct. 7 [2023], actual facts, and who’s going to be a nationwide leader on these issues,” Gottheimer said. 

“A lot of Jewish voters feel abandoned, and they want someone who’s going to be a champion of them and of the community,” Gottheimer said.

Schorr said the Vaad is anticipating that it can convince not only Democrats but an even more significant number of unaffiliated voters in Lakewood and beyond to pull the lever for Gottheimer in a race that is expected to be fought on the margins.

Along with its endorsement, the Vaad is spending heavily on ads and get-out-the-vote efforts to help raise awareness around the primary, for which early voting begins next Tuesday and ends on Sunday.

Schorr, who clarified that he was not involved in the endorsement discussions and that his own group is not taking sides in the race, acknowledged that the Vaad’s endorsement could “heavily tilt” the election. But he said the late push may face some logistical hurdles with just weeks remaining until the primary.

“There’s not that much time,” he told JI on Tuesday. “Their struggle will be to get people to turn out for the Democratic candidate.”

Livingston, N.J. Mayor Ed Meinhardt, a former synagogue president who has endorsed Gottheimer, said he expects the Jewish community in his town and surrounding areas — including two large Orthodox congregations — to support Gottheimer, adding that Gottheimer’s “path to victory very much goes through the Jewish population of western Essex” County.

Sherrill represents Livingston and other areas of Essex, and local observers expect her to carry a significant share of the Jewish vote in her congressional district.

“I think what Congressman Gottheimer is doing is taking the vote away from Congresswoman Sherrill,” Meinhardt said. “I believe what Congressman Gottheimer is doing is actually splitting the vote and taking the vote away from her and putting it back into his camp … That’s why he’s spent so much time in this area.”

Another local source familiar with the race said that “given the way the numbers are looking, having the Jewish community come out and vote would appear to be a boon for [Gottheimer], and if the Jewish community doesn’t come out and vote for him, it’s going to hurt.”

The source said that the Jewish community in New Jersey — totaling more than 600,000, making it the largest non-Christian religious community in the state — could be enough to swing the race if Jewish voters show up in force and if Gottheimer is able to turn out and unify Jewish voters statewide, outside of his existing Bergen County constituency.

“There’s 120,000 people in Lakewood, so let’s say they could deliver 40,000 votes, give or take, maybe less … but there’s enough there that if the entire community came out and voted for one candidate, there’s a good chance that candidate’s going to win,” the source said.

David Bercovitch, the co-founder of a new political advocacy group called Safeguard Jewish South Jersey, which has endorsed Gottheimer, said the congressman “has garnered the support of so many in the Jewish community because he embodies the values of everyday New Jerseyans.”

“He is a strong advocate on the issues of concern for the Jewish community, as his track record in Congress shows,” Bercovitch told JI. “I believe many will be surprised by the results on June 10 in large part because of his tremendous advocacy for the Jewish community.”

In the GOP primary, the Vaad also endorsed Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman who won Lakewood in his previous bid for governor in 2021, even as Gov. Phil Murphy, a term-limited Democrat, had notched the coalition’s backing at the time.