Rep. John James (R-MI) is facing a competitive rematch for a second term representing the state’s 10th Congressional District against Democrat Carl Marlinga. 

“It is a battleground within the battleground,” one Republican campaign operative characterized the district to Jewish Insider. “Michigan’s 10th is also 100% a majority maker seat with these new maps, and obviously there’s less and less of those.”

Two Democratic campaign sources told JI that Marlinga’s surprisingly competitive 2022 performance made this race worth engaging in. The Cook Political Report lists the race as “Lean Republican,” and pollsters have indicated that James is the favorite in the contest. But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House Democrats’ campaign arm, released a poll last week that showed James and Marlinga essentially tied.

“James has a slight advantage here, but the slightest of advantages, and it’s mostly based on former President Trump’s track record of performance in the Macomb County portions of this district,” Adrian Hemond, a Michigan political strategist, told JI. 

“If Donald Trump can perform like he has previously in the Macomb County portions of this district, then John James should win. If there’s any slippage, he’s going to have trouble, because the other portion of this district, outside Macomb County, is a very different looking group of voters that are trending toward Democrats just as quickly as Macomb County voters are trending toward Donald Trump’s brand of Republicans,” he said. 

Marlinga’s campaign hopes its improved fundraising numbers will allow for a more competitive race. Marlinga launched a seven-figure ad buy late last week, focused on his career as a judge and prosecutor. That followed a $1.7 million ad buy last month by the House Majority PAC. 

Still, James had $4 million cash on hand as of mid-July, according to his most recent Federal Election Commission filing, a stark contrast to the $104,000 in reserves listed in Marlinga’s last filing. 

James, an Army veteran and an alumni of James Group International, his family’s supply chain management company, has a pro-Israel record in Congress, where he’s used his position on the House Education and Workforce Committee to push college administrators to take action on the rise of campus antisemitism. He voted in May for the Antisemitism Awareness Act, and told JI in an interview that he was amenable to supporting the Countering Antisemitism Act if it were to come for a vote.

“Antisemitism is the oldest form of hate, and so we’ve been dealing with this for the entire human history, and this is the scourge we’re dealing with now. So we have to call it for what it is and deal with it,” James told JI. 

AIPAC announced its endorsement of James before his Democratic challenger had won his respective primary. “The pro-Israel community supports Rep. James who has stood with Israel as it battles aggression from Iran and its terrorist proxies of Hamas and Hezbollah. During his tenure in Congress, he has demonstrated his commitment to strengthening the US-Israel alliance,” the group said in a statement on its decision. 

Marlinga has been endorsed by J Street, but does not have the support of the Democratic Majority for Israel, which is not weighing in on this race. Marlinga tweeted his support for Israel in the days after the Oct. 7 attack, condemning the use of “both sides” arguments to justify terrorism. He told JI that he supports the Antisemitism Awareness Act and the Countering Antisemitism Act. 

“Humanity has always been burdened with various forms of intolerance, discrimination, and hate. Antisemitism is one of the most virulent symptoms of this menace and has tragically been on the rise across the country, including here in metro Detroit,” Marlinga said. 

The issue of Israel hasn’t come up much on the campaign trail, but the candidates have some differences in terms of U.S.-Israel policy. (The geopolitical topic that has come up is concern about Russia’s war in Ukraine; a result of the district’s large population of Eastern European immigrants.) Both candidates say they support Israel’s right to self defense, but diverge on how they feel about Israel’s prosecution of its wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

“Macomb County has very large populations of the descendants of Eastern European immigrants, specifically from Poland and Ukraine. There is a big Ukrainian community in and around the city of Warren and its environs. In Macomb County, there is a big population of the descendants of Polish immigrants, and a lot of those folks have been somewhat activated by the Ukraine war and worries about Russia’s ambitions in Eastern Europe,” Hemond said.

“It’s definitely a secondary issue, but to the extent that foreign policy is an important issue in this district, it’s that, not the Israel-Gaza war,” he explained. 

James has been critical of the Biden administration’s efforts to publicly pressure Israel to not take certain actions in their wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Marlinga and James both say they support Israel’s goals of fully eliminating Hamas and destroying Hezbollah’s capacity to govern or wage war, but Marlinga says the loss of life in Gaza has been “too great” and supports pushing for a cease-fire. 

Neither say they would vote to cut off military aid, though Marlinga believes the U.S. should “continue monitoring how Israel is using the weapons that we are sending them, along with continuing to push for humanitarian aid to freely flow in to help innocent civilians that are being affected by the violence.”

“Israel is fighting a war of self defense, and either America agrees that Israel has a right to exist, or it doesn’t. I believe that Israel has a right to exist and therefore has a right to self defense, and when you’re talking about an existential threat, then all means available and necessary have to be on the table,” James told JI this week.

Instead of sparring over Israel support, James and Marlinga have largely fought over electric vehicles and who would be a stronger ally to the auto workers, a huge constituency in the district and the state. Both have also run on cost of living and crime concerns, while Marlinga has hit James for his pro-life stance. 

“The A word: abortion. While a settled question in Michigan, it’s still resonating with women in the suburbs,” Dennis Lennox, a Michigan Republican strategist, told JI. 

Hemond noted that: “Crime and inflation have been very high on the list, especially for the James campaign, in terms of things that they want to talk about. As you can imagine for any Democratic campaign in a competitive race, Marlinga is talking a lot about reproductive rights because it’s the best polling issue that Democrats have nationwide. It plays right into the bifurcation by sex that we’re seeing in political behavior in this country, where women are trending very hard towards Democrats, and basically all men, except for college educated men, are trending towards Republicans.”

The Republican Jewish Coalition cut an ad targeting Marlinga’s record as an attorney as part of a $1.3 million ad buy in three battleground House races earlier this month. Asked why RJC got involved in James’ race, Sam Markstein, RJC political and communications director, told JI, “The road to the majority in the House runs through districts like John James’ district in MI-10. To keep the majority and to keep Speaker [Mike] Johnson leading the House, it’s important that we support our friends in competitive races.”

Markstein added that he expects voter outreach in the James race will help former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), the Republican nominee in the race to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), and Trump. Rogers is facing Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who has outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris in polls. 

“Every single vote that goes for John James is very likely a vote that goes for Mike Rogers, which is very likely a vote that goes for Donald Trump,” Markstein said. “Every single vote that we’re getting for John James this way is a force multiplier times three. So Michigan, the Senate race, the John James race in MI-10 are all very, very important.”

“If Trump wins Michigan, this race is over.”