The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar over the weekend did not end the war in Gaza, but it is a potent symbol of a new phase, in which the terrorist group is mostly defeated and resorting to guerilla warfare to continue its attacks against Israel. And as large-scale fighting appears to be winding down in the enclave, the question of who will govern Gaza after the war is more relevant than ever.

Israel hopes to work with friendly Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to help stabilize and deradicalize Gaza. Some experts say Sinwar’s death will help start that process, while others said it remains unlikely regardless of Hamas’ decapitation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in his address to a joint session of Congress in July that while Israel must “retain overriding security control [of Gaza] to prevent the resurgence of terror,” Israel does not seek to resettle Gaza or control the lives of Palestinians living there. Rather, Netanyahu called for Gaza to “have a civilian administration run by Palestinians who do not seek to destroy Israel,” along with “demilitarization and deradicalization…with the help of regional partners.” He reiterated that vision at the U.N General Assembly in September: “We don’t seek to resettle Gaza. What we seek is a demilitarized and deradicalized Gaza…We are ready to work with regional and other partners to support a local civilian administration in Gaza, committed to peaceful coexistence.” A senior Israeli official confirmed that this remains the government’s vision.

Those “regional partners,” which include Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, have been reticent to publicly confirm that they would take part in such a plan. 

Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed posted on X last month that the UAE’s participation in a day-after plan was contingent on the establishment of a Palestinian state. Some reports have indicated that partners in the Gulf called for the Palestinian Authority’s involvement, which Israel wants to avoid or significantly reduce due to the P.A.’s incitement to terrorism, contradicting the goal of deradicalization.

The UAE’s vision for the day after in Gaza, according to the Emirates Policy Center, involves a “temporary international mission” tasked with “effectively addressing the humanitarian crisis, establishing law and order and laying the groundwork for a competent government that can facilitate the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip under a single legitimate Palestinian authority.” The UAE would require “a clear political path leading to a two-state solution,” as opposed to the actual establishment of a state before getting involved.

An Israeli official told Jewish Insider that Sinwar’s death “lowered barriers” among Arab states, for whom Hamas’ continued grip on Gaza was the main obstacle to their involvement in reconstruction and deradicalization efforts.

Yaara Segal, a senior research fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and former senior adviser to Israel’s ambassador to the UAE, noted that UAE Special Envoy Lana Nusseibeh told the Financial Times in July that her country was willing to send troops to Gaza as part of a multinational “stabilization forces…at the invitation of a reformed PA” as part of a postwar plan.

While “the killing of Sinwar is a great opportunity for a lot of changes,” there are a lot of factors that need to be considered before Gulf states would get involved, Segal said, including “how Israel will act after killing Sinwar.”

Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that Sinwar’s death “opened a space for discussion about the day after, but I think it’s still hard while Israel is operating [in Gaza] and looking for hostages. You can’t build where there is going to be more destruction.” 

The point at which reconstruction will be more realistic is when terrorism from Gaza will be a “low-level insurgency that need not require airstrikes. It’s going to start looking like the West Bank, where the IDF can target a specific cell and withdraw.” 

Segal said Gulf states’ participation also “depends on what happens within Hamas…Will killing Sinwar make Hamas change its principled stance against a third-party entering Gaza?” Segal asked.

In addition, Segal said cooperation with other Arab states, especially Egypt, which borders on Gaza, as well as support from the U.S. and the broader international community, is important to the UAE.

Schanzer noted that “no Gulf state is going to seriously discuss a plan for the day after without knowing who they’re working with. It’s going to be like haggling at the shuk. If they’re putting in money, they want to know what they’re getting in return, primarily from the U.S.”

It’s likely premature to know how things will develop, Schanzer said: “Wait 2.5 weeks. We’re probably heading into a new phase, where we’ll reconsider these discussions.”

Shira Efron, director of research at the Israel Policy Forum, said that while Sinwar’s death removed a “spoiler” to anyone seeking to rebuild Gaza, she was skeptical that Gulf states will be involved as long as Israel’s government opposes the PA’s involvement.

“It’s an Israeli fantasy that they’ll come with their Gulf money to save Gaza,” she said in a webinar for the Jerusalem Press Club. 

“The UAE was as explicit as possible in their writing and public [remarks] as they have been in private, and the same goes for Saudi Arabia as well as the Egyptians and other countries,” Efron said. “They said that when they are invited by the Palestinians to come help Gaza, they will come and support it. They’re not going to take over.” 

Efron argued that “there is only one P.A., with all of its faults.”

“Everyone is aligned in their vision of what comes next for Gaza except for current Israeli leadership,” she added. “I hope this convinces [Israel’s government] that this is the best path forward.”