Nearly all of the vulnerable Democratic senators up for reelection next month have been embracing consistently pro-Israel positions over the past year. But Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) has, at several points, tacked to the left of many of them.

Baldwin is currently among the most endangered Senate Democratic incumbents — the Cook Political Report recently changed its rating for her race against Republican Eric Hovde from “lean Democratic” to “toss-up,” following polling that showed the contest within the margin of error. 

Her approach on Israel has been different from those of most other swing-state Democrats — though states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada have significantly larger Jewish populations and Montana leans more conservative overall. Wisconsin, with its comparatively small Jewish population and left-wing constituency in the state capital of Madison, is home to one of the House’s most outspoken critics of Israel.

That said, several leaders in the state’s Jewish community say they trust and support Baldwin given her long record and relationship with the Jewish community, even if they disagree with some of her recent policy stances.

Most recently, Baldwin was the only vulnerable Democrat who declined to explicitly distance herself from resolutions led by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) seeking to block various tranches of military sales to Israel, at a time when many other Senate Democrats are leaning into support for Israel following the second Iranian missile attack on the country.

It’s a pattern that has repeated itself throughout the year.

In January, Baldwin signed onto an amendment conditioning emergency supplemental aid to Israel and other allies, saying, “it’s our responsibility to make sure our aid is used in accordance with international humanitarian law – just as our country regularly does.” She’s the only vulnerable Democrat who supported that effort.

She was also one of only two endangered incumbents, along with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who signed a letter highly critical of the Israeli government, calling on the administration to publicly outline a path for the U.S. to recognize a Palestinian state and “move beyond facilitation” of Israeli-Palestinian talks.

Baldwin and Brown signed another letter criticizing Israel’s operations in Gaza and raising questions about whether it was facilitating sufficient aid.

The amendment was prompted primarily by concerns about Israel’s operations in Gaza.

Prior to Oct. 7, Baldwin was one of 16 senators who expressed concerns about Israel’s potential entry into the Visa Waiver Program; Israel was added months after.

“Since Hamas’s horrific terrorist attack on Israel, Senator Baldwin has consistently supported Israel’s right to defend themselves and voted to deliver them aid to do just that. Senator Baldwin has been calling for Hamas to return hostages to their families, pushing for a mutually agreed end to the war, and advocating for sustainable peace and security in the region through a two-state solution,” Baldwin spokesperson Eli Rosen said in a statement to Jewish Insider.

To be sure, Baldwin has also joined the pro-Israel chorus at many points, including in voting for supplemental aid earlier this year.

Last week, she joined other Senate Democrats in arguing that Iranian funds held in Qatar must remain frozen, after Iran’s president suggested Iran would be able to access them. Baldwin has been outspoken on that issue going back to Oct. 7.

“I was proud to push the Biden Administration to freeze these Iranian assets, and now — given Iran’s brazen attacks on Israel and ongoing support for its terrorist proxies — it is abundantly clear that those funds must continue to be out of reach for them,” Baldwin said.

And on Friday, she joined a letter calling on the administration to implement legislation passed earlier this year strengthening sanctions on Iran’s oil revenues and missile and drone programs, highlighting that the administration has missed a series of mandatory deadlines laid out in those bills.

Last year, following revelations that the Council on American Islamic Relations’ founder had praised the Oct. 7 attacks, Baldwin disavowed CAIR entirely, saying that the remarks had “led to me completely losing faith in the organization and its work.”

She also pushed for significantly increased funding for the State Department’s antisemitism envoy, along with several other vulnerable Democrats.

Hovde, Baldwin’s opponent, said he would have voted against the Israel aid package that Baldwin supported and has taken criticism for promoting the “Great Reset” conspiracy theory, which invokes antisemitic tropes. 

And multiple Jewish leaders in the state said they’ve seen and received no outreach from Hovde and his campaign, though one leader said they had seen ads from Hovde characterizing Baldwin as bad for the Jewish community.

Hovde’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Wisconsin’s Jewish community seems to be largely sticking by Baldwin, even if some have concerns around some of recent positions relating to aid to Israel.

Jeremy Tunis, a member of the board of the Jewish Federation of Madison who spoke to JI in a personal capacity, said, “some of us may have nuances with specific, granular positions, maybe conditioning aid or other things. But I certainly view her as an ally of the Jewish community and — on the vast majority of issues, in terms of her entire tenure in the Senate — as someone who is taking the right votes on Israel’s security.”

Tunis said he’d heard Baldwin, in private settings, speak “eloquently about her commitment to safety for Israel and the Jewish community” and said she’s been attentive to the Jewish community’s concerns, on Israel, nonprofit security, Holocaust education and other policy issues in line with general Democratic Party priorities.

Jordan Loeb, a former Madison synagogue president, said that Baldwin has a 20-year history with the Jewish community so she has “a pretty solid foundation in terms of navigating the Jewish community, kind of to a point where we don’t worry about her.” He said that Baldwin should have little trouble winning his community overwhelmingly in next month’s election.

Loeb added that he sees her views on Israel as in line with her generally more dovish foreign policy views, rather than as singling out Israel specifically as other lawmakers have. And he said her concerns about U.S. aid and Israel’s conduct are shared by many in the state’s Jewish and pro-Israel community.

He added that Baldwin understands Iran’s central role in stoking the conflict in the Middle East.

Multiple Jewish community members also highlighted that Baldwin has been the target of aggressive left-wing protests targeting her as too supportive of Israel. Tunis praised Baldwin for not kowtowing to protesters who have interrupted campaign events.

“I don’t ever get the sense that she’s just blowing in the breeze, that she’s getting pushed around by some special interest group,” Loeb said. “I’ve seen her stand up to the far left — and the far left thinks that they own her based on her roots … People who assume that she can be swayed by passion are just wrong.”

A Madison Jewish community leader who requested anonymity to speak freely told JI, “I don’t worry about her being a part of a group that’s causing us harm as a politician… I think she really has a place in her heart for caring about our community.”

Tunis and the Madison Jewish leader both highlighted how Baldwin proactively stepped up to support the Jewish community following antisemitic demonstrations on the University of Wisconsin’s Madison campus as well as a neo-Nazi march on the state capitol, including showing up on UW’s campus to support the Jewish community.

Jewish leaders compared Baldwin favorably to other members of Wisconsin’s delegation — particularly Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI). Loeb described Baldwin as Pocan’s “polar opposite” on Israel, “even though their policies or stated positions might look very similar.”

The Madison Jewish leader added that Baldwin’s responses to antisemitic incidents in the city had been stronger and faster than those from Pocan and other leaders, describing them as “far and away the kind of response that I think we needed and deserve and should have received from everybody else.”

And the leader said that she’d been far more accessible to the Jewish community than other political leaders.

But Baldwin does have some skeptics in the Jewish community. David Kopstein, a retired rabbi living in Madison, said he was “pleased to read” Baldwin’s initial statements in support of Israel in the immediate wake of Oct. 7, but said that she quickly retreated from that unequivocal stance.

“I understand her need to equivocate with an election at hand, bemoaning the fate of Gaza while calling for the release of the hostages, attending Netanyahu’s address to Congress while expressing her ‘deep disappointment’ that he didn’t address all her concerns, needing to garner votes from both pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel folks,” Kopstein said. “But I wish she would be stronger in support of Israel.”

Ultimately, though, Kopstein said he’d “probably vote for her despite the equivocations, chiefly because I want to see the Senate stay majority Democrat.”