In a closely contested House race on Long Island, Democrat Laura Gillen is seeking a rematch against freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), who is among the most vulnerable Republicans now up for reelection.

The Nassau County matchup is shaping up to be a must-win for Democrats in their effort to win back the House, and private polling suggests a dead heat to the finish line, according to strategists from both parties.

Another Democratic loss in a district that President Joe Biden won by double digits in 2020 would likely point to a deeper problem for the party, particularly as D’Esposito, a former police detective, faces recent accusations of corruption and ethics violations that have further imperiled his odds of claiming a second term.

Gillen, a former Hempstead town supervisor, has been gaining momentum in the final weeks of the race, sources say, after losing to D’Esposito during the midterms — when a Republican sweep of Long Island helped the party reclaim the majority in the House.

Her campaign will test whether Democrats in the suburbs of New York City can effectively beat back Republican charges that the party is soft on crime and immigration — which proved fatal during the last election.

Both candidates are tacking to the center on issues that have been liabilities for their respective parties in recent cycles.

Gillen has pushed for increased funding to local law enforcement — while leaning to the right on border security amid heightened voter concerns related to the migrant crisis. 

“We’re 2,000 miles from Mexico but we’re feeling the migrant crisis almost every day, so I want you to hear me loud and clear,” she said in a recent ad. “If you send me to Congress, I will work with anyone from any party to secure our Southern border, lock up criminals pushing fentanyl and stop the migrant crisis.”  

In an effort to preempt Democratic attacks, on the other hand, D’Esposito has insisted he would never support a nationwide abortion ban.

The Israel-Hamas war is another hot-button issue strategists expect will drive turnout. Both Gillen and D’Esposito have been courting Jewish voters, who could be decisive in a tight race. The district, which is heavily Orthodox and includes the Five Towns, is home to one of the largest Jewish constituencies in the country.

Last month, for instance, Gillen announced what she called an “action plan” to combat antisemitism, and she has frequently spoken up to support Israel’s “unequivocal right to defend itself against Iranian aggression,” as she said recently in a social media post.

Like Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY), who won a special election to replace disgraced former Rep. George Santos (R-NY), Gillen is arguing that voters would be better served by electing a pro-Israel Democrat who can serve as a bulwark against the far left in Congress.

“Voters in this district know that solidarity with Israel must be bipartisan, so it is crucial to have a strongly pro-Israel Democratic representative,” Gillen said in a statement to Jewish Insider on Monday. 

“I have been consistent and unequivocal in my support for Israel and its right to self-defense against Iranian aggression,” she added. “I have outlined a results-focused policy plan to combat antisemitism. And I have no qualms calling out members of my own party when they are wrong on these issues.”

For his part, D’Esposito has been touting his support for a bipartisan resolution labeling the slogan “from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free” as antisemitic, among other efforts. “Since day one in office, Congressman D’Esposito has tirelessly advocated for Jewish neighbors on Capitol Hill by advancing legislation to combat antisemitism,” Matt Capp, a spokesperson for D’Esposito’s campaign, told JI. 

In addition to legislative action, he highlighted D’Esposito’s role as a board member of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum and position on the House-Knesset Parliamentary Friendship Group. “We are confident Jewish neighbors will support D’Esposito’s record,” Capp said, including “rejecting antisemitism.”

But the congressman has drawn scrutiny in recent weeks amid allegations that he may have violated House ethics rules by giving a job to a woman with whom he was having an affair.

It remains unclear how the scandal, which he has dismissed as a “partisan hit,” will shape the race in New York’s 4th Congressional District. Republicans who spoke with JI sought to downplay the fallout, while Democratic sources hinted Gillen has moved ahead in the polls in the wake of the controversy.

“We always knew this would be a very competitive race, as NY-04 is one of a handful of seats that Joe Biden carried — by 14% — which is held by a Republican,” Sam Markstein, a spokesperson for the Republican Jewish Coalition, told JI recently. “This election will come down to the voters on Long Island who know Congressman D’Esposito best, and they know he has their backs.”

While both candidates have received help from outside groups, the race will be decided by turnout, said Michael Fragin, a Jewish Republican activist in Nassau County.

“It really depends on who turns out,” he told JI. “If  some of the Democratic base voters in the central part of the county show up like they did in 2020, then that’s going to be tough for a Republican.”

But if Democrats “stay home like they did in 2021 and 2022,” he added, then Republicans can likely count on another upset.