Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned the threat of a regional war still loomed, as Iran and its Houthi proxies plan to retaliate against Israel for the assassinations of Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month.

Nasrallah’s televised address on Sunday evening came hours after Israel thwarted Hezbollah’s planned attack on the Tel Aviv area, including the Glilot military intelligence compound, by striking about 100 missile launchpads in southern Lebanon. The terrorist organization still proceeded to assault Israel’s north with over 300 rockets and drones, killing one soldier and causing extensive property damage.

Nasrallah said that Hezbollah intended to “keep the Iron Dome busy” with hundreds of rockets targeting Israel’s north, while shooting accurate missiles, heavy rockets and UAVs at Glilot and another target that he did not name – likely Defense Ministry headquarters in central Tel Aviv.

Yet Hezbollah was ultimately only able to carry out the distraction part of its plan thanks to the Israeli Air Force strike.

If the attack’s results were not “satisfactory,” Nasrallah said, “we reserve the right to retaliate another time.”

“We are asked why we waited until today for our retaliation,” Nasrallah said. “We were ready since Fuad Shukr’s death. … Hastiness could have led to a loss. … The delay was meant to punish the enemy by leading to their stock market to drop and [for Israel to incur] economic losses.”

“Israel will continue to wait because there is still an Iranian and Yemeni response. We examined over time whether it was better for the whole axis to respond in one day or individually,” the terrorist leader stated.

Iran still faces a dilemma, according to Atlantic Council Nonresident Fellow Danny Citrinowicz, as to whether to attack Israel in conjunction with Hezbollah in retaliation for Haniyeh’s assassination, for which Israel has not taken responsibility.

“The American threat and the fear of a regional campaign are very challenging to Iran,” Citrinowicz wrote. “It may…join symbolically in this attack, but it is clear that it has chosen not to join the opening barrage…[There is a] key role for the U.S. administration in pressuring Iran not to join the attack and making sure the Israeli response will be limited.”

Despite all evidence to the contrary, Hezbollah claimed in a statement on Sunday that Israel was not successful in thwarting its planned attack and that it was done with its retaliation for that day. 

“As part of cognitive and psychological warfare, Hezbollah hopes to convey a narrative of success…[and] hints that another military target that was attacked will be revealed later, and that its attack this morning is in fact only the first stage,” wrote researchers Dana Polak and Tal Be’eri of the Alma Center, which specializes in the security of Israel’s north

“The coming days will reveal whether Hezbollah is willing to continue taking risks and attempting to attack inhabited areas deep within Israel, potentially escalating into an all-out war with Israel,” they added.

Robert Satloff, the executive director of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote that after Israel thwarted Hezbollah’s major attack plans, “the ball is back in Hezbollah’s (ahem, Tehran’s) court. With some speechifying that talks big but says nothing, and with no further targeting deep inside Israel, this episode can pass.” 

Satloff also noted the “considerable restraint” of Israel’s leaders in undertaking targeted and preemptive attacks rather than a major operation against Hezbollah, “a function both of some cooler heads among certain Israeli leaders and cautionary words from” Biden.

Citrinowicz called Sunday’s events “a significant step towards expanding the war dramatically.” 

Hezbollah “could not [be seen as] restraining itself after the elimination of such a figure [as Shakr] in Beirut and it was necessary in [its] view to balance the deterrence equation against Israel,” Citrinowicz wrote. 

The more the IDF successfully thwarts such attacks, the more likely it is that a broader regional war could be prevented, and Hezbollah’s statement that its targets were military bases shows it wants to limit the attack, he said, adding that at the same time, the situation between Israel and Hezbollah has long been very unstable.

“This incident is further proof that without a ceasefire in Gaza that will lead to calm in the Israeli northern border, the likelihood of war is high,” Citrinowicz said, referring to past remarks by Hezbollah leadership that it will halt its attacks on Israel if the war in Gaza ends. Senior Israeli officials have expressed skepticism to Jewish Insider that Hezbollah would keep its word.